Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
